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The Republican Loyalty Cracks — And In the Fissure: Cuba, Greenland, and the World

HEMISPHERE ------------------------------------------1147[COLUMN]

The Republican Loyalty Cracks — And In the Fissure: Cuba, Greenland, and the World

The man nobody could stop is being stopped by his own people.

By Heydi Bernal for Ruta Pantera on 6/4/2026 9:29:07 AM

Four Republicans. That's all it took. On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a war powers resolution to force Trump to either withdraw troops from Iran or obtain congressional authorization to continue. The vote was 215 to 208. The margin was microscopic. The signal was deafening. In the party of absolute loyalty, something is breaking.

"People are tired of this. They're tired of $5 gallon gas and $6 gallon diesel, and fertilizer we can't afford to put on our fields in Kentucky." That was a Republican congressman from Kentucky, speaking after the vote. These four defectors are not just the usual rebels. They represent something different: the beginning of a political calculation.

Republicans are staring at approval numbers in the low 30s and doing the arithmetic of the November that is coming. The 2026 midterm elections are no longer a distant horizon. They are the window that has started to close.

The war with Iran, which Trump initially called a "short-term excursion," reaches its 100th day this Saturday. It began on February 28 alongside Israel, without asking Congress for authorization. Trump tried to call it a "skirmish." Congress, which under the Constitution is the only body that can declare war, was not persuaded. This is already the fourth time this year the House has voted on a war powers resolution. The fourth.

But the Iran war is only the tip of the iceberg. What is at stake is the complete pattern. In January, after the military operation that toppled Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that the United States could intervene in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, Iran, and Greenland. "Nobody can stop us," he said. His Secretary of State warned that Cuba "is in a lot of trouble." And Trump promised to "make a deal" — which, translated from Trumpian, almost always means: regime change.

Then came this: "Our great military is loading up and resting, looking forward, actually, to its next conquest." He used the word "conquest" himself. Not a critic. Not an analyst. The president of the United States described his army's actions that way. And meanwhile, on prediction markets, the probability that Republicans lose their House majority has climbed from 8% to 42% in just five months. Like a rocket.

What we are witnessing is not just an approval crisis. It is the moment when Trump's allies begin to calculate how much they can lose by covering his back. Former allies on the right have suggested the president may be "crazy." Ex-officials from his first administration are floating the 25th Amendment. Sixty-one percent of Americans say Trump has "become erratic with age." Including three in ten Republicans themselves.

Cuba. Greenland. Iran. Venezuela. These are not dots on a map: they are the vertices of a doctrine that nobody explicitly voted for, that no Congress has formally authorized, and that is costing farmers five dollars per gallon of gasoline. Four Republicans said so out loud on Wednesday. The question is not whether there will be more. The question is how many are needed for the calculation to truly change.

The Senate blocked the resolution this same Wednesday. Trump, for now, still has his war. But the next vote is already scheduled. And the crack, once opened, has a physics of its own.


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